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Werewolves Bot C BOT 12-Jul-23 07:31 PM
@Tom Crust the Sheriff has created a new CC! CC Members | Total: 2 @Tom Crust the Sheriff @Huck the Prospector
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:31 PM
So what do you be makin' of this situation in #wolf_creek?
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:32 PM
ay!
19:32
well, as far as i know, i know nuthin yet
19:33
but ive been keepin track of what the public claims be
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:33 PM
What do you think of the other two claims?
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:33 PM
my first instinct is that fed got out early with his claim to skirt an accusation later. but that is only hypothetical and with no other evidence.
19:34
other claims bein you journo and jay bein ranger?
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:35 PM
I was expectin' a better town role than me to claim, 'cause it seemed highly likely that there would be a mayor candidate role in the list. Though what's strikin' me as odd is that there's no counter on that
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:35 PM
well, journo is fairly boring and easy to fake, until dead. so maybe fakeable, but so far nothing ill has happened in that, and jay being ranger.... well, not much there to read on, but again, could be wolf or flute. so all being said, too early to get a read on anything. just keeping my scum reads open so far.
19:36
its why ive been trying to get chat going in the square to get some rivalries going.
19:36
but like i said, tumbleweeds
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:36 PM
That claim of Citizen strikes me as mighty peculiar. Truth be told, it don't make much sense at all.
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:36 PM
why do you think that?
19:36
(i agree sort of, but id like your take on it)
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:37 PM
Why go claimin' early and accussing without reasonin'? And then the weird votin' on top of that
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:37 PM
(i feel like he didnt need to out himself, it has no gain and just feels out of place)
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:37 PM
I'm thinkin' there's nothing to gain for a real Citizen
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:37 PM
yeah, same thought
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:37 PM
But a wolf, perhaps a sneaky one, would have much to gain
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:38 PM
hmm.... yeah, sneaking wolf would track with a potential vanilla list.
19:38
thats a good thought
19:38
maybe ill go chat with him to see if he lets anythign slip
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:38 PM
Well, go ahead and give it a shot! If you stumble upon somethin' worth notin', do let me know. I'm all ears for anythin' interestin'.
19:39
If you want I can also drop you a note with a keyword from my journalin', might come in useful (journal code) (edited)
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:40 PM
well, i think i may keep ye in the dark for a bit, just due to the fact that there is no way to confirm you...... but that said, you puttin suss on fed with me does imply youre not on the same team.... soooo..... ill think about it
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Tom Crust the Sheriff
If you want I can also drop you a note with a keyword from my journalin', might come in useful (journal code) (edited)
Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:40 PM
sure. sounds good. but i also dont want to share my role yet, so that may have to wait too
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:40 PM
That's fine, I've been discussin' the same suspicious in several other ccs, so I'm just curious to hear if there's anythin' more to it
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Huck the Prospector
sure. sounds good. but i also dont want to share my role yet, so that may have to wait too
Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:41 PM
That's fine, I'm not confirmed and I don't expect you to just believe me. This is goin' to be your code: huck-ojaf0as9zf0ah9owhr8za9wgaowiz. You're familar with the concept?
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:42 PM
wait, ya think fed is doing one of his crazy "im cit, just kidding, im FT" or something plays? 🤔
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Tom Crust the Sheriff
That's fine, I'm not confirmed and I don't expect you to just believe me. This is goin' to be your code: huck-ojaf0as9zf0ah9owhr8za9wgaowiz. You're familar with the concept?
Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:42 PM
yeah
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:43 PM
He could be goin' for the "too sus to be an important role" strat, which doesn't really work out well, so I think it'd be quite a bad play here
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:43 PM
ill dig for that actually. might just make a bold accusation to him in a cc actually.
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 07:43 PM
Sounds like a good idea
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 07:51 PM
yeah, i had a think, i dont think im going to tell you much until i get some confirmation on you.
19:52
but ill be happy to open dialog with you about things that are out in the open.
19:52
does that sound fair?
19:53
the fed thing, if i tell you anything, if youre scum and he says hes doing the cit-> strong role, then if youre scum then youll kill him. if he trips on something as scum, ill prolly just take it to town. so this chat for that doesnt really have any purpose to talk about it.
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Huck the Prospector
does that sound fair?
Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 08:00 PM
that's exactly what the cc is for
20:01
if he trips on something as scum, ill prolly just take it to town.
Perfect
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 08:01 PM
oh right lmao..... i kind of told you something without telling you something 😞
20:01
idiot
20:02
welp.... fuck it then
20:02
i think feds resonings are pretty suss, imo.
20:04
yeah, pretty sure imma take this all to town, he needs a little interogation i think
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 08:11 PM
Now I'm curious what else he said
20:11
We only have 2 hours until phase change, so to ensure we have enough time for discussin' this it might pe prudent to take it to town soon (edited)
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:12 PM
so, he added me to a tie with swurtle cc which had some others in it. which actually tells us a bit
23:13
A- swurtle isnt on his team (if he is scum) or B- he was town and is on her team but.... well, i dont actually know lol
23:13
but alls im saying is that, if fed is scum then swurtle might not be, and if fed is town, swurtle might be scum
23:14
the latter point isnt for sure though cuz he could be town shootin at another town.
23:14
just talking through the variables
23:15
one thing i know for sure, is you 2 and jay are defo not on his team after all that in town
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:15 PM
I think we can probably conclude they're not scum together, hard to make conclusions the other way around as a townie wouldn't know who town o scum is
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:15 PM
so if fed is scum, then we have 3 people that we know almost for certain arent scum
23:16
he did seem scum to me, but thing is, fed is sometimes wild and i cant lock him in at 100% scum yet
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:16 PM
yeah fed is confusing
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:16 PM
oh, also, you know im not on his team due to the fact that i was involved in that. still doesnt clear me but just knows that we arent aligned if there is a wolfpack and he was in it
23:17
so okay.... working with that assumption that he was a wolf. lets try something
23:17
if fed is scum wolf
23:17
!a
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Werewolves Bot C BOT 12-Jul-23 11:17 PM
Alive Players | Total: 9 🐱 - katyhawk (@Sulphur King Katy) thonk - swurtle (@Spittoon Swurtle the Barkeep) 🛠️ - mctsts (@Tom Crust the Sheriff) 🧋 - thekremblin (@Bandito Leader Krem) 🎨 - captainluffy (@Captain Luffy) 🤠 - huckhuck55 (@Huck the Prospector) 👁‍🗨 - matstress (@Ms Mat Dubois) 🐙 - alphaviki (@Deputy Al F.A. Viki) 🦎 - shapechange (@Bandito Leader Jay) (edited)
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:18 PM
(wait, maybe i should do this in my own channel, sorry, went down a thought hole and i cant trust you yet.... ugh....
23:18
maybe you can clear something up for me Ts.
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:19 PM
Sure?
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:19 PM
so. scenario
23:20
you brought this thought to me (even though i also shared the thought with you seperate from you bringing it up) and i pursuied that train of thought, bringing fed into the light. what defense do you have towards the idea that, you were trying to frame him as scum and he just stumbled all over the accusation that it worked, using me as a pawn to get that all to happen?
23:20
(not trying to accuse you, its just an edge case that i want to clear up)
23:21
i only ask these questions cuz i want to trust you, not that i want to make you guilty
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:21 PM
I would like to say I immediately said it was me who brought it to you in town square. I was going to to accuse him anyway and had been discussing it with around everyone already
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:21 PM
true
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:21 PM
You were simply the person who was proactive and did something
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:22 PM
okay. thats good.
23:22
now, further more, how am i to know that you werent spreading that around so someone else would act on it, or at least to put a town on the block rather than one of your pack (not saying thats the case, just hypothetical)
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:24 PM
I was planning to accuse fed myself either way, and honestly I was the main person acusing/arguing with federick
23:24
You merely started it
23:24
I don't think it was hidden in any way that I was completely supporting the accusations
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:25 PM
yeah, i know that, but that only says either A- youre both on opposite teams, alignment unknown B- youre both town fighting with eachother because you dont know alignment.
23:25
again, i want to apologize for this, its just an interogation to provide trust between us.
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Huck the Prospector
yeah, i know that, but that only says either A- youre both on opposite teams, alignment unknown B- youre both town fighting with eachother because you dont know alignment.
Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:25 PM
I mean, that's basically it?
23:25
I thought federick was acting suspiciously, so I accused him
23:26
You have no way of knowing anything about my alignment nor his, I think
23:26
And neither do I know his alignment
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:26 PM
hmm... maybe i need to wait for rep to know for sure how it all is.
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:26 PM
He could be town, or he could be scum.
23:26
But he seemed scummy to me, so I wanted to take the risk
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:26 PM
i just want someone to talk about everything with 😭
23:26
yeah, i agree.... he did seem scummy to me too
23:27
thats why im more inclined to trust you.
23:27
but you are known to have the biggest brain in this game so, i have to be cautious. downfall of being good at the game
23:28
well.... im gonna lay out some thoughts on the table based on my (maybe terrible) instinct
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Werewolves Bot C BOT 12-Jul-23 11:28 PM
Alive Players | Total: 9 🐱 - katyhawk (@Sulphur King Katy) thonk - swurtle (@Spittoon Swurtle the Barkeep) 🛠️ - mctsts (@Tom Crust the Sheriff) 🧋 - thekremblin (@Bandito Leader Krem) 🎨 - captainluffy (@Captain Luffy) 🤠 - huckhuck55 (@Huck the Prospector) 👁‍🗨 - matstress (@Ms Mat Dubois) 🐙 - alphaviki (@Deputy Al F.A. Viki) 🦎 - shapechange (@Bandito Leader Jay) (edited)
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:30 PM
  • fed wolf scum probably not wolf based on arguing vs silence
  • katy
  • mat
  • alpha
23:30
does that make sense?
23:31
luffy voted to lynch fed krem called out fed on bad logic..... but that doesnt clear him actually swurtle was feds tie suggestion ts and jay and huck all argued with fed. the rest silent through it all
23:32
  • fed not scum no idea
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:41 PM
Mat seems very likely to be Chef according to what info we have, with Fed having been their Wolf Waiter
23:41
I think it'd be too elaborate to be fake
23:41
On the other hand, its a federick play
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:41 PM
oh right, i forgot about that
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 12-Jul-23 11:41 PM
So you never know
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Huck the Prospector 12-Jul-23 11:42 PM
hmm.... and there are 3 wolves correct?
23:42
yeah
23:42
so.... hmm
23:42
okay
23:43
imma put a pin in the thought until i get more facts round'
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:23 PM
So, I did a little experiment yesterday with Katy.
18:25
I kicked them from the cc to bait them to killing me because I may have known they were wolfie. Didn’t die so maybe not wolf? Crazy logic, but thought it might work. And since I’m <cit> it’s not a huge loss. I told Jay about this but he like, died, so no one can confirm my idea 😞
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:27 PM
I think Katy can only be scum if invinci was the TI
18:27
Which is possible, but I believe its a possibility I'd rather ignore
18:29
The way I play is this: If something is true with a small chance I like to pretend its impossible. This basically leads to two outcomes: a) a low chance of it fucking over town b) a high chance of really benefiting town If we overthink everything and try to play it safe, we basically end up in a middle ground: a guaranteed chance of mediocrity (which often leads to dragged out games, ending in a town loss) (edited)
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:29 PM
Yeah, and Katy passed my stupid test, so that’s another point in their favour.
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Tom Crust the Sheriff
The way I play is this: If something is true with a small chance I like to pretend its impossible. This basically leads to two outcomes: a) a low chance of it fucking over town b) a high chance of really benefiting town If we overthink everything and try to play it safe, we basically end up in a middle ground: a guaranteed chance of mediocrity (which often leads to dragged out games, ending in a town loss) (edited)
Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:30 PM
I won't pretend that this will always work out - one time I convinced everyone to lynch the real Hooker D1 fucking us over. But it often does work out better than alternatives
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Huck the Prospector
Yeah, and Katy passed my stupid test, so that’s another point in their favour.
Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:30 PM
Nice
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:30 PM
Then again, VIP should have bigger brains.
18:32
But also, I’m my experience, wolves spend the first couple of days debating over the best claim to make and therefor don’t come out super boldly with claims. Unless ya know, sneaking wolf gives them the claim. But that said, just on the alternative, Katy has had lots of time to feel out the crowd and figure out if it’s safe to claim TI. So that’s just a little food for thought. But I do agree, occums razor is often how it be.
18:33
I remade a cc with Katy to see if what they have to say about me removing them from the cc. Let’s see what happens with that.
18:35
I guess with Katy, it makes most sense that they are town, but I still have in the back of my head the Fed wolf thing with krem and Katy being the fellow wolves, based on arguement reads, that’s why I’m a bit hesitant to trust them.
18:37
Anyways, that’s all just theories. Is your opinion to trust Katy? Cuz I’ll follow your lead if so. And tbf, my claim isn’t important so I don’t mind giving it away. But if we think Katy is suss I’ll give them a stronger role and let them target me as wolf.
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:38 PM
Like I said, I don't think we can be sure on it
18:38
But I'm betting on them being the TI
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:39 PM
Hell, I don’t even know if I should trust you lmao. But I’m just taking a gamble here.
18:39
Okay, I’ll give ‘em some info then I guess. Just wish it was anyone that was more against fed.
18:39
Like for example, you lol.
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:40 PM
We can't trust that fed was wolf either
18:40
That's the same case of my "all or nothing" strat
18:40
There's a good chance he was a townie
18:40
But I'm choosing to not really consider it
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:40 PM
No I know, it’s just the easiest one to sort out the list. Not saying fed WAS wolf, just wish he was cuz that would blow open the wolves. (Sort of)
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:41 PM
The way it would make sense to me is if invinci was FT and checked a sneaking wolf (maybe fed?) N1 and told them they're FT
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:46 PM
yeah, that seems far fetched tbf
18:47
so i get what youre saying, occams razor.
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:47 PM
It's not super far fetched
18:47
It's pretty much an 1/10 chance to hit the sneaking wolf N1 (assuming there's one, but I'm fairly certain on it)
18:48
but 10% is low enough for me to disregard
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:48 PM
you think the FT would tell a cit theyre FT? that seems risky. due to the fact that sneaking wolf is very possible on a vanilla list
18:48
also, a hidden list.
18:49
if i was FT and checked someone, i would def not go out and check people then immediately claim to them without having some more info on a hidden list
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Huck the Prospector
you think the FT would tell a cit theyre FT? that seems risky. due to the fact that sneaking wolf is very possible on a vanilla list
Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:49 PM
I don't think I've played with invinci before. Do you think they'd realize SnW exists?
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:49 PM
hmm.... well i guess youre right, they do blunder sometimes with not realizing things.
18:50
but that said, they arent the type to just crash into a room and claim just because of a check.... i dont think
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:50 PM
I extensively discussed the role list with Jay, so I'm sort of convinced by our conclusions, but it may not be obvious to everyone
18:50
especially N1
18:50
its unlikely anyway
18:51
Actually. Katy can 100% be trusted, its actually obvious
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:51 PM
😭 i just want a rep so we can have feds role.... would make this way easier
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:51 PM
They said they checked Jay. Jay said they got contacted by a TI and didnt accuse them of scum
18:51
Jay is confirmed as Child by death (unless Swurtle is Child, which I'm not sure how that could work out)
18:51
So Katy must've gotten Jay's role right
18:51
Wait, no.
18:52
I also think a Knowledge Wolf is likely
18:52
A smart wolf could realize a Ranger claim is actually the Child
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:52 PM
;knowledge wolf
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Werewolves Bot C BOT 13-Jul-23 06:52 PM
❗ Could not find role knowledge wolf. Did you mean knowledgeable wolf (aka Knowledgable Wolf)?
18:52
Author icon
Knowledgeable Wolf [Werewolf Miscellaneous]
Basics
The Knowledgeable Wolf starts out with some information about the role list.
Details
At the start of the game the Knowledgeable Wolf is told some of the roles on the role list. The Knowledgeable Wolf can only be used in games with a partial or private role list and usually receives a partial role list. Alternatively, the Hosts may decide to tell the Knowledgeable Wolf about all the roles in the game.
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Footer icon VIP Wolves Revamped - V3G3
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:52 PM
It'd be a bit of a bold claim, but not impossible
18:52
They get the role list (or parts of it), so they make for a very common role in partial games
18:53
If the wolves know Jay can't be Ranger, but that there must be a Child, it would be guessable without being TI
18:53
But that would require a pretty bold claim on top of the 10% chance
18:53
I think that's unlikely.
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:53 PM
yeah, i doubt they would do that on intuition and luck
18:53
(and brain)
18:54
thats far to risky
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:54 PM
There's players that I could see doing that
18:54
But afaik Katy usually doesn't go for plays that bold
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:54 PM
also, ranger is very possible on this list, so i would say it would be a 50/50 gamble on telling jay theyre child
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:55 PM
Well if they know the full list they'd know Ranger isn't on it
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:56 PM
oh true. forgot bout that bit
18:57
and i mean, katy did say they didnt have a W in their role..... super duper trustworthy bit of info there lol
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:58 PM
Is that the new way of claiming?
18:58
Does your role contain a ß? (edited)
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:58 PM
lol, umm.... well dont know the german translation of cit, so maybe
18:59
what is citizen in german?
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 06:59 PM
uh
18:59
let me use a translator (edited)
18:59
"Bürger" according to deepl
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 06:59 PM
BURGER!!!
18:59
lmfao
18:59
im a burger!
19:00
im going to tell katy that
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 07:00 PM
I think Citizen is not perfectly translatable, or maybe its just because how I see the word "Citizen" is strongly influenced by WWR
19:01
"Bürger" implies that you're an official citizen of a state imo
19:01
Citizen feels a bit more casual imo
19:01
I would say a Bürger of Germany, but not a Bürger of <Town>
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 07:01 PM
well yeah, this town is in the state of colarado, and therefor, a citizen is of the state, checks out
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 07:01 PM
I would not use it for states either
19:02
like Bürger to me has the connotation of being specifically for the country
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 07:02 PM
well, i would, and will with katy for a bit (ill come clean if need be)
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 07:02 PM
whereas Citizen works for country/state/town/whatever (but maybe my understanding of the english word is wrong here)
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 07:03 PM
okay, so back to the issue at hand. katy knowledgable wolf or TI. thats what weve boiled it down to
19:03
prolly not KW cuz they dont tend to make big plays like that
19:04
only way katy is not TI is if tank was and there were a few things that happened in the process to make katy a believable TI
19:04
so unlikely unless they were methodical with their moves
19:04
which is possible, but less likely
19:05
also, if fed WAS wolf, katy would be on their team (in my world).
19:05
but if fed wasnt, its unknown i guess
19:05
ugh, i dont know, there are too many variables that make me uneasy to trust them
19:06
there is the easy route and just jumping in..... and due to cit, its a good way to bait a wolf kill on say, TK (not tk, actually cit)
19:06
so here is a question to you TS
19:07
if i claim to be TK, and katy takes my ctc to town and puts me for lynch, maybe we know for sure that katy is town?
19:07
and if katy doesnt, then we could expect a kill on me at night
19:08
or no, that doesnt fully work either.... hmm
19:14
actually, yeah know what, i dont care, im just gonna give em my role....
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 07:33 PM
well, i put forward my conpiracy theory to katy, see what they say i guess
19:33
also told them im cit.
19:34
but gonna see if they fumble in their explanation.
19:34
who knows, maybe i can catch 2 wolves..... or maybe im just wrongly accusing towns lmao. both are very possible lmao
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 07:54 PM
What do you think about the alpha lynch announcement?
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 07:55 PM
i dont know anything about alpha
19:56
but that was also someone that didnt get the fed heat
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 07:56 PM
he's been inactive which is generally scum-indicative
19:56
dont remember him doing anything
19:56
but im not really aware of any strong reasons for it
19:56
(asked katy for a reason in cc, but have not gotten a reply yet)
19:56
Did alpha do anything noteworthy so far?
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 07:57 PM
yeah, i accused katy with my reasonings linking to fed.... hasnt responded to that either
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Tom Crust the Sheriff
Did alpha do anything noteworthy so far?
Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 07:57 PM
no
19:57
maybe cuz he hasnt claimed?
19:57
idk really
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 07:57 PM
oh that'd make sense actually
19:57
im voting with them cause as I explained before I think they're extremly likely to be trusted
19:58
but they've not really explained anything all that well
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:02 PM
yeah, i dont know, the lack of explaination is making me sort of weary
20:02
maybe ill ask for explaination in town
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:02 PM
i dont think its likely they're scum, but its possible they're mislynching (edited)
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:03 PM
yeah, i dont know, im confused about everything atm
20:07
as far as im concerned, i feel like alpha, fed, krem, and katy are my top suspects
20:07
katy lower on the list
20:07
but still there
20:08
until i get explainations on what the play is here and defense against my fed questioning, im going to consider them as scum
20:08
unless they are talking with someone else who is confirmed trusted and just trying to work things out
20:08
but the lack of info to town as to reasons why the lynch
20:08
actually
20:08
wait
20:09
so alpha and katy are not on the same team
20:09
sooo.... hmm
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:10 PM
They might be talking with the TK
20:10
but they're certainly not talking to me
20:12
I do think you're onto something with krem though, maybe
20:13
They've been fairly quite too
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:23 PM
So basically Katy says its between you and alpha, and I'm definitely with you then
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:29 PM
oh, so alpha is claiming cit?
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:29 PM
yep
20:29
but he's been doing nothing
20:30
so I'm on your side here
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:30 PM
yeah, me too lol
20:33
"but that doesnt exactly clear you from being wolf..... like im not "accusing you", thats what town square is for.
but im saying this as a scenario fed wolf, team up with you and krem as wolves to get a town (maybe swurtle) killed and framed as wolf.
i just need some explaination as to why thats wrong, cuz from where im sitting, that is very much a possibility"
20:34
thats what i said to katy
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:34 PM
I mean the thing is just we know someone is TI
20:34
Nobody else has claimed it
20:34
So we're back to the situation where it must be invinci
20:34
Actually, hold on.
20:34
Swurtle could've been TI too
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:35 PM
ugh.... this is so aggravating. but yeah, thats true
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:35 PM
The thing is if Swurtle was TI, then Katy's plan would rely on getting them killed N2
20:35
Which is not really something that can be planned
20:36
So it's as unlikely as the invinci N1 SnW check scenario, I think
20:36
(actually there's also the invinci random kill scenario, which we can expect to have a 1/(11-3)=12.5% chance of occuring)
20:36
and the 12.5% and 10.0% are sort of independent of each other
20:38
I think the total chance of the scenarios would basically be this: 0.125+0.1 - 0.125*0.1 (inclusion–exclusion principle) =0.125+0.1-0.0125=21.25%
20:38
what
20:38
that doesn't seem right
20:39
that's a surprisingly high chance for invinci to be TI
20:39
I probably broke some math rules there
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:39 PM
fed did invite me to the cc he had with swurtle as a reason to tie the lynch with him using swurtle. in that chat, swurtle didnt say anything condeming. and fed also added luffy and krem.....
20:40
just bits and bobs of info
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:40 PM
I do think we're at a point where it's not really possible to reconsider trusting Katy
20:40
I think they're making the right call on lynching Alpha over you
20:40
For turtle I dont know their claim
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:41 PM
yeah, but we also have to consider the possiblilty that krem is with alpha, (if the fed scenario is true)
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:41 PM
My theory is that krem is the TK
20:42
They were the first to vote on the lynches
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:42 PM
the math youre throwing at me is hard to back up, due to randomness being true, but randomness comes with reads, so its not all random, ya know?
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:42 PM
Yeah ignore the math really, I dont know if its accurate
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:42 PM
lmao
20:42
okay
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:42 PM
But I think ultimately in my head I was imagining the chance of invinci being FT to be 1/11 when its actually higher
20:43
as wolves wouldnt random kill another wolf
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:43 PM
also, with the alpha lynch, he hasnt even tried to defend himself?
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:43 PM
yep
20:43
I also asked him in cc
20:43
no response
20:43
May be offline
20:43
may have given up
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:43 PM
so, in this then, it means, fed me and alpha all claimed cit, im assuming
20:43
so it is possible he could also be cit if there are 2 cits?
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:44 PM
Only claims Katy told me are you and alpha to explain the lynch
20:44
But yea so there's those 3 cit claims
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:44 PM
im guessing there would be 2 cits
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:44 PM
2 cits is possible, I imagine
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:44 PM
so maybe fed was cit, and alpha is not?
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:44 PM
possible
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:45 PM
cuz i know what i am so that leaves 50% on who it is between the 2 of them
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:45 PM
Just before the end fed started bringing up some more reasonable points
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:45 PM
yeah
20:45
thats true
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:45 PM
I've been reconsidering if he's town since then
20:45
The thing is he should've just started with a proper defense
20:45
And not engaging in pointless arguments
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:45 PM
could be a last ditch effort to save himself, but idk.... just a variable
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:46 PM
Either way, I think we just need to go with katy
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:47 PM
yeah, i guess so. makes sense for katy to withhold info from us as we are both unconfirmed, just annoying since i have reasons to mistrust them
20:47
but i guess at this point, need to trust someone.
20:48
(which is you most of all really)
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:48 PM
Most likely I'll be confirmed tonight (unless we win before then)
20:49
But you're less fortunate I suppose pensivebread
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:51 PM
tswoag
20:51
you think we could win tonight?
20:53
jay swurtle tank alpha turtle, fed going to be dead (edited)
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:53 PM
also federick
20:53
with no mistakes we'd be winning
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:54 PM
jay most likely town. but either way, one of jay or swurtle were scum fed or alpha scum?
20:54
so thats at least 2
20:54
1 more, and flute
20:54
and i guess turtle? cuz thats a katy call
20:54
didnt know much about luffy so im not sure on that one.
20:54
but sure, ill go with it
20:55
so yeah, guess there is a chance it could end after the lynch
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 08:55 PM
best case we win and I dont think there's anything else to go on 🤷
20:55
Katy is not elaborating
20:55
And I'm commited to trusting them, cause I just think the alternatives are extremly unlikely
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:55 PM
who were wolf kills tank and swurtle or jay (most likely jay, but who knows)
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Tom Crust the Sheriff
And I'm commited to trusting them, cause I just think the alternatives are extremly unlikely
Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 08:56 PM
yeah, agreed
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 09:54 PM
lmao..... sooo, interesting turn of events
21:54
tutel is claiming journo to me
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 09:54 PM
Uhm
21:54
He claimed Citizen to Katy.
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 09:54 PM
that kind of locks it in eh?
21:55
lmao
21:55
dumb
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 09:55 PM
Yeah that reeks of desperation
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 09:55 PM
like, youre def journo right?
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 09:55 PM
no, I'm secretly hell-aligned pyromancer angel
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 09:56 PM
lmao
21:56
okay, switch lynch time
21:56
cant have that role in the game
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Tom Crust the Sheriff 13-Jul-23 09:56 PM
pffffft
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 09:57 PM
tutel is just to logical to ignore lol
21:59
I just backread and I feel like you're quite trustable from
⁠wolf_creek and I'm not sure I can trust Katy or Ts at this point. I claimed Cit to Katy but I'm actually Journo -tutel
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Huck the Prospector 13-Jul-23 10:11 PM
I KNEW YOU WERE FLUTE!!! dammit!!
22:11
i saidit way early on too
22:11
ugh
Exported 342 message(s)