Vyryn
31-Jul-19 06:49 AM
@Participant if kruthers is dead in the morning, we've nearly won. Tomorrow we can only lynch one person because the mayor is dead, but that's okay.
Of course, if I'm dead in the morning, kill lua. But this is quite unlikely.
To avoid the double kill that the turned cursed civ will get if we kill the cub before them, we need to do the following:
Gameplan if kruthers is dead in the morning and I'm alive (70% chance)
Tomorrow, lynch WhyThough. He is more likely to have turned than federick, due to lying to us, having gathered more info, and federick seeming really genuinely upset about being shut out of town organizing.
Tomorrow night, I will water Llama. This will reduce the wolves to having only one final wolf kill tomorrow night, rather than 2 if we lynch Llama. Basically, one extra of us gets a live win instead of a team win this way.
The day after tomorrow, we lynch Dragon and win.
Gameplan if kruthers is alive in the morning and I'm dead (5% chance)
I fucked up something big time. We still win, but it takes longer.
If no one died: They turned the other cursed civ.
Lynch Lua, then WhyThough, then federick, then Llama, then Dragon. Then we win.
If someone else also died:
Lynch Lua, then WhyThough, then Llama, then Dragon. Then we win.
Gameplan if kruthers and I are both dead in the morning (25% chance)
Wolves have killed me. We still win, but it takes a little longer.
Lynch WhyThough, then Llama, then Dragon. Then we win.
One other possibility bears mention: If the only death tonight is kruthers, the wolves got to the other cursed civ and WT and federick are both packless wolves. We will kill them both before Llama so one extra townie can live win.
(edited)
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Added @Chopper2112 to the CC!
